Friday, August 19, 2005

 

al-Zarqawi for President!

Okay, here's where I put on the flame-retardant suit... you know, the one with the series concentric circles on the back (with a matching pattern on the front of the hat).

But frankly, I'm a little mystified by the people who want to pull American forces out of Iraq.

It's not that I disagree with that point in particular. I would very much like to see nearly every American military person in Iraq come home, with only a few Marines left behind to guard the American Embassy (as they do in every country).

What I wonder about is the how and the when. Those clamoring for an exit are demanding an "exit strategy" and a deadline for leaving.

There's a problem with the idea of making our exit from Iraq based on the calendar and not on the country's own stability. If that date comes, and we pull out before Iraq is stable enough to sustain itself against the al-Qaeda invaders (what the press is calling "insurgents" -- I'll discuss the difference at a later time), then within a few months it will be a country controlled by al-Qaida.

Okay, maybe that will seem a bit overly strong, overblown, or even inflammatory to some of you. But follow this line of thought for a moment.

The main leader of the invading force is Abu Musab al-Karachi. There are other leaders in the movement, of course, but al-Karachi is the most vocal, and the best known to Western audiences. It's entirely possible that the latter is because the press has focused on his rather sensational public announcements of alliance with al-Qaida, and admiration of Osama bin Laden.

The press' fascination (for lack of a lighter word) with Mr. al-Karachi may also be because he is a fairly charismatic man, and makes for good television. That same charisma has brought other anti-coalition groups to his side. In short, I find it hard to not believe that, should these groups overthrow the Iraqi government, the new leader of Iraq would soon be Abu Musab al-Karachi.

Now imagine an Iraq with him in charge. As I've already mentioned, he's publicly allied himself with al-Qaida. Can there be any doubt that with him in charge of the country, there would very soon be dozens of training camps in place for al-Qaida to use at its will?

Now, I suppose some of those on the more extreme left think that, left to themselves, al-Qaida will leave us alone. Such people have forgotten all about those two really tall buildings that used to dominate the skyline of New York City... and the two thousand people who died when those buildings came down.

In other words, al-Qaida leaving us alone is just not going to happen. They hate anything that is not both Islamic (at least in name) and Middle Eastern. The rest of us have to die, by whatever means they can muster. It doesn't matter what we do, short of repealing our First Amendment right to freedom of religion and turning the United States into an Islamic dictatorship -- and even that might not do the trick.

The leadership of al-Qaida is already convinced that Americans are weak and cowardly, and if they put enough pressure on us we'll put our collective tails between our legs and run away from the conflict. To pull out now, or at any time before Iraq is ready to keep its own people secure, is to send the al-Qaida membership the message that, yes indeed, their leaders are correct and the United States of America is ready for the exterminators.

Most amazing of all are those who insist that we should pull our troops out of both Iraq and Afghanistan... now. At least two of the candidates for last year's Democratic Presidential nomination publicly stated as much. Given what I've already spelled out here, had one of these men been elected I would've been moving to New Zealand or some other country (English-speaking, since that's the only one I've learned so far) where I could live without fear of being attacked or murdered in the street just for having been born an American.

This is not to say that everything in Iraq has been handled correctly. The reasons for the original invasion were very poorly spelled out, so that the "weapons of mass destruction" seemed to be the only reason when in fact there were at least three more compelling ones (war crimes from 1991, repeated violations of UN resolutions, and saddens publicly-announced financial support for suicide bombers). The whole Abu Ghraib prison scandal should never have happened, and has been very poorly handled (by both the government and the press). And there have been other problems along the way.

But there is, and must remain, an absolute commitment to making Iraq safe, if for no other reason that however that country's fate goes, ours is likely to follow.

Disclaimer: The above remarks have nothing to do with the Cindy Sheehan controversy. I'd actually started this editorial before it began, and I'd finished it before I knew much about it. Though the two questions obviously overlap, none of the above is in response to anything anyone has said in relation to Mrs. Sheehan, her son Casey, or anything else in that specific controversy. I'll probably have something to say about that matter at some later date, but for now I have too little to put into an editorial.

Comments:
I took my time to read your political analysis of the critical situation in Iraq and this is the most objective and logical article I have read on the war in Iraq since I came on Blogexplosion.

MOST OF THE POLITICAL BLOGGERS have been overtly sentimental and biased over their differences. And their differences are often determined by their partisan politics of either being Republicans or Democrats and Liberals. Ironically, the Al Qaeda does not know and does not care about all these irrational disputes in American politics and these self-mutilation will not help America to overcome all the obstacles in the war on terror.

I have told several of these bloggers to forget all these negative misunderstandings and be united as one nation in the pursuit of the primary objectives and goals of the war on terror and some waved me off in dismissal while others called me an "Internet troll" and spammer and I laughed at their ignorance. Because, they did not know that two of my compatriots in the US Marines were among those already killed in Iraq and over 20 other African soldiers were killed in Chad whilst fighting against the forces of the Al Qaeda from Algeria. And the Marines are still busy here in Sub Saharan Africa training our soldiers for the on going war on terror.

The war on terror is not only an American burden, but the burden of humankind in our struggle for survival.
 
Great post. Very Sensible.

It wouldn't have mattered if it did have something to do with Sheehan. Especially since you were very rational in your argument.

Thanks
Steve
 
Hiya, Bob -- nice to see you in "Battle of the Blogs," where we just crossed swords!

A few comments. You write:

-----
There's a problem with the idea of making our exit from Iraq based on the calendar and not on the country's own stability. If that date comes, and we pull out before Iraq is stable enough to sustain itself against the al-Qaeda invaders (what the press is calling "insurgents" -- I'll discuss the difference at a later time), then within a few months it will be a country controlled by al-Qaida.
-----

It's a mistake to think of the Iraq insurgency as monolithic. Al Qaeda in Iraq is one of a number of groups fighting there. As a matter of fact, a couple of weeks ago, a US general described at least three of the separate "insurgencies" --

1) Al Qaeda in Iraq, which is small, given mostly to car bombings, and pissing off the Iraqis (the general noted that in some areas of the country, the homegrown insurgents were fighting the al Qaeda operators wherever they showed up, and then turning their guns back toward the Americans whenever they would drive out al Qaeda).

2) The remnants of the former Ba'athist regime, which are also rather small, but well-financed from former regime funds that were socked away. At some point last year, there were even stories that they were "fighting with their money" as much as with their guns, basically offering bounties for the killing of US troops.

3) The general Sunni insurgency -- not Wahabbe, not al Qaeda, but definitely not thrilled about the idea of a Shiite majority government, and not at all liking the US occupation.

These seem to be the three main ones which are active at this time. But:

- If the Shiites stop getting their way, the Iranian-backed Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (which is, for all intents and purposes, the controlling party in the existing US-backed government) will almost certainly take up arms.

- If the Kurds stop getting their way, their militias, who have thus far been supportive of the occupation, will also become restive.

There are probably also a number of party militias (the Communist Party especially) which are laying low while the US takes the hit for them and the other insurgents weaken the existing government enough to perhaps make it ripe for overthrow.

The one thing we can be reasonably sure of is that if the US pulled out of Iraq tomorrow, al Qaeda would not be in charge of Iraq a week, a month, a year or a decade after that. There is simply no significant support for Wahabbe jihadism in Iraq, which is why most of the al Qaeda operators are imported from other countries. If the US can't pacify the place with 140,000 troops, al Qaeda would be most unlikely to be able to take power with its 10,000 or so operators, even if it brought them all in from their various vipers' nests around the globe.

The bigger threat right now is that most of Iraq will become part of a Greater Iran when the US does leave ... and not only has the US encouraged that, but there's probably little it can do to change it now. We made a big mistake going in, and it's probably not one that can be "fixed" under any circumstances. It's certainly not one that can be "fixed" by the further effusion of American blood into the sand. We screwed up. Sometimes when you screw up, there's no going back and fixing it. Sometimes you just have to live with the consequences.

Tom Knapp
 
Tom -- thanks for the intelligent reply. I actually had been expecting a bunch of comments along the lines of, "Bush is just plain a [expletive deleted] liar, you [expletive deleted]!" But I guess well-reasoned arguments on one side of an idea tend to spawn the same, just the same as mindless rederic.

As to Al Qaeda's noncentralization, that is, in a way, the whole point. (I know it doesn't look that way from my original editorial, but bear with me.) It's an even stronger argument to hold the line against them. If we don't shut them down, but instead surrender and pull away, who's going to stop them from setting up base and becoming even stronger?

And that's on top of the fact that pulling out will only have the effect of making them think that we're cowards, easily frightened out of a fight if they just make the fight seem too costly (while making us forget or ignore the cost of not fighting.)

This is one area where we can't just bow out and "live with the consequences," because the consequences will be that we no longer live.
 

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